|Probabilistic Projection of China's Total Population, 1950-2100
Source: United Nations, Department of Social and Economic Affairs,
Population Division: World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision.
New York, 2011 (www.unpopulation.org)
This figure presents the results of a
probabilistic projection of China's total population prepared by the
Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and
|The projection is based on
probabilistic projections of total fertility that have been used in
the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. For this
projection 5,000 trajectories of total fertility were randomly
sampled from the original 100,000 probabilistic trajectories of
total fertility that were calculated using a Bayesian Hierarchical
Model (BHM). Methodological details of the probabilistic model are
here. The results of the
probabilistic fertility projections have been published
|As illustrated by this
figure, China's population is projected to increase only slightly
for a few years, before it begins to decline to less than one
billion people by the end of the century. It is very unlikely for
Chinas population to increase above 1.4 billion people. According to
this probabilistic projection there is a less than 5% chance that
this could happen.
This section was updated on 25 September 2011.