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| Total Population and Average Number of Children per Woman in China, 1950-2050 |
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Source: United Nations, Department of Social and Economic Affairs,
Population Division: World Population Prospects, The 2008
Revision. New York, 2009 |
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According to the 2008 Revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects, China's women, on average, had more than 6 children in the early 1950s. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children per women, briefly dropped in the late 1950s and early 1960s, as China went through the disaster of the "Great Leap Forward", one of largest man-made famines in recorded history. By the late 1960s, China's TFR had again increased to almost 6 children per woman. The very high fertility in the early 1950s and late 1960s corresponded well with Mao's political dogma that a huge population would promote China's military and political power. The high fertility caused the enormous population increase of China and is now responsible for the huge momentum effect which is now incorporated in China's age structure. |
| However, with the start of China's "one-child" population policy the country experienced one of the most dramatic declines in fertility in human history - particularly if one takes into account the large number of people that where involved in this fertility decline. Hundreds of millions of women reduced their fertility and by the late 1990s the country's TFR dropped below the so-called reproductive level of about 2.1. Measured by (period) fertility, China's women, on average, had less children than were necessary to replace the parent generation. |
| While fertility measures in China are still highly uncertain most experts agree that the TFR is now well below the reproductive level of 2.1. The range of uncertainty is indicated by the fact that credible sources have published TFR estimates that range between 1.4 and 1.9 children per women. The future trend of fertility in China is highly uncertain. In their medium variant projection the United Nations Population Division assumes a slight increase of fertility to 1.83 children per women in 2050. |
| Assuming that China's total fertility would stay constant at current levels, the population would increase - by population momentum alone - to 1.45 billion people around 2035, before declining to 1.38 billion people in 2050. However, with an average fertility of about half a child more, China's population could easily increase to 1.62 billion - as indicated by the high variant of the 2008 Revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects. |
