The Index of
Political Instability prepared by the Economist Intelligence Unit is
based on insight from political science literature that seeks to
identify and quantify the main social, economic and political
factors that are associated with, or that can predict, political
instability. In particular, it draws on the work of the so-called
Political Instability Task Force (PITF) based at George Mason
University in the United States of America. The PITF has created a
simple model that has a rate of success of over 80% in identifying,
ex post, outbreaks of serious instability for a data set that
stretches back to 1955.
This figure displays the results for
selected European countries
as well as for China, India and the United States of America.
Surprisingly, both India and China are ranked as politically more
stable than the United States of America, or various European
countries, such as Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria or Estonia. While
these index rankings are reported here, the author is a bit
skeptical concerning the validity of the results.