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Probabilistic Projection of China's Total Population, 1950-2100

China: Probabilistic Projection of Total Population

Source: United Nations, Department of Social and Economic Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision. New York, 2011 (

This figure presents the results of a probabilistic projection of China's total population prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

The projection is based on probabilistic projections of total fertility that have been used in the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. For this projection 5,000 trajectories of total fertility were randomly sampled from the original 100,000 probabilistic trajectories of total fertility that were calculated using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). Methodological details of the probabilistic model are available here. The results of the probabilistic fertility projections have been published here.
As illustrated by this figure, China's population is projected to increase only slightly for a few years, before it begins to decline to less than one billion people by the end of the century. It is very unlikely for Chinas population to increase above 1.4 billion people. According to this probabilistic projection there is a less than 5% chance that this could happen.

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This section was updated on 25 September 2011.

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Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. - 18 April 2012