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Average
Number of Children per Woman in China, Europe, USA and India: 1950-2100 |
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Source: United Nations,
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population
Division (2011): World Population Prospects, the 2010 Revision. New York. See:
www.unpopulation.org
Note: This chart displays average Total Fertility Rates by
five-year intervals. |
China's women, on
average, had more than 6 children in the early 1950s. The Total
Fertility Rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children
per women, briefly dropped in the late 1950s and early 1960s, as
China went through the disaster of the "Great Leap Forward" - which
was one of the largest famines in human history. By
the late 1960s, China's TFR had again increased to more than 6
children per woman. The very high fertility in the early 1950s and
late 1960s corresponded well with Mao's political dogma that a huge
population would increase China's military, economic and political power. This
high fertility caused the enormous population increase of modern
China and is now responsible for the huge momentum that is built into
China's age structure. |
With the start of China's
"one-child" population policy, however, the country experienced
a most dramatic fertility decline. Hundreds of
millions of women reduced their fertility and by the early 1990s
the country's TFR had dropped below the so-called "reproductive level" of
about 2.1. Measured by (period) fertility, China's women, on
average, now have less children than are necessary to replace the parent
generation. |
While fertility measures
in China are still highly uncertain most experts agree that the TFR
is now well below 2.1 children per woman. The range of
uncertainty is indicated by the fact that credible sources (both
inside and outside of China) have
published TFR estimates that range between 1.4 and 1.8 children per
women. |
With about 2.8 children
per women, India's average fertility level in the 2005-2010 period, is still well
above the reproductive level of 2.1. Moreover, since the early
1970s, India's fertility dropped only rather slowly. This has generated very large
generations of young people for more than four decades. India's
average number of children is still above the reproductive level of
2.1. This delayed fertility decline will eventually cause India to
outgrow China. By 2050, India will have almost 400 million more
inhabitants than China; by the end of the century, India's
population could be more than 600 million larger than China's
population. |
Europe's average level of
fertility, on the other hand, has been been below 2.1 since the
early-1970s. The continent, as whole, has had less children for more
than three decades (or roughly one generation) than would have been
necessary to replace one generation with the next. |
The United States of
America had its baby boom in the mid-1950s with an average number of
children of about 3.7. This was followed by a steep fertility decline.
By the late 1970s average fertility in the United States was lower
than in Europe. However, by the late 1990s fertility levels had
increased (primarily due to higher fertility of immigrants). Currently
fertility in the US of America is slightly above reproductive level. |
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This section was updated on 9 June 2011. |
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