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Probabilistic Projection of China's Population age 0-14, 1950-2100

China: Probabilistic Projection of Total Population

Source: United Nations, Department of Social and Economic Affairs, Population Division: World Population Prospects, The 2010 Revision. New York, 2011 (

This figure presents the results of a probabilistic projection of China's children under the age of 15 prepared by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

The projection is based on probabilistic projections of total fertility that have been used in the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects. For this projection 5,000 trajectories of total fertility were randomly sampled from the original 100,000 probabilistic trajectories of total fertility that were calculated using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). Methodological details of the probabilistic model are available here. The results of the probabilistic fertility projections have been published here.
As illustrated by this figure, China's population age 0-14 has been declining since 1975 and is projected to decline further to around 140 million by the end of the century. It is very likely for Chinas population under the age of 15 to decline in the future as indicated by the 80% confidence interval for a decline. There is only a 1 in 40 chance for China's population under 15 to stagnate or slightly increase..

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This section was updated on 25 September 2011.

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Copyright 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 by Gerhard K. Heilig. All rights reserved. - 18 April 2012